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Ed Rountree's avatar

I would go a step further and say that I would run from anyone bragging about significantly outperforming the market right now. At the very least, I would ask if they are a fiduciary and have a GIPS-compliant track record actually managing real money. It’s one thing to post a list of stocks on the internet, it’s another thing entirely to accept the fiduciary responsibilities of such actions.

Roughly 80% of the S&P 500’s gains over the last three years have come from AI stocks, and I count nearly half of the market weighting of the S&P tied to that theme. If someone doubled the market return in 2025 they likely had more exposure to this theme, or owned lower quality stocks exposed to this theme. They are probably better at story telling than they are at understanding investors like Graham and Buffett, and they are probably from the under-40 generation that has never had to experience any real pain in the financial markets.

If I were looking for someone to manage my money right now, I would want to hear someone telling me that they flat out will not keep up with the S&P 500 if this continues, that they are de-risking the stock portfolio, and giving me ideas for diversification beyond AI. That doesn’t mean that this can’t continue for several more years, but that’s what a fiduciary would do.

David Newman's avatar

Gary, Excellent piece. In the future readers might really enjoy your perspective on identifying stellar Teams (no untested crews on deep water voyages),Business Models that endure, thrive in various economic environments (i.e. present opportunity in undervalued Energy), Cos exhibiting long term increasing dividend distribution and more of your perspectives on how to actually make $ moving forward with Ai investments.

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